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I am sure all of you are being bombarded with information, misinformation and pressure from various quarters plus stressed to give bigger and bigger headlines for same story on H1N1 Flu (swine Flu). If you have time, patience and more importantly larger public interest in mind please independently get the below mentioned facts verified from independent experts or standard website research and publish the facts.
This is an excellent most up to date website aimed at US interests
This is the official site of WHO for H1N1, GOI is expected to follow these guidelines
If you search these sites you get answer to all the queries on based on current knowledge and research evidence.
The basic facts on Flu
Common cold (called as Influenza in modern medical language) is well known to mankind since time immemorial, to be precise since mammals had their nose during the course of evolution!
Common cold is classically taught as one liner in medical colleges in India as ‘an illness if treated lasts for only a week and if not goes on and on for s e v e n d a y s’. In fact if the developed countries have spent maximum resource on one particular illness that is common cold (Viral Flu / Influenza) since the industrial revolution and post world war time because that was the single major cause of absenteeism and man hour loss for the employer or society.
However major conclusion was it is not possible to conquer common cold. Developed countries have wasted billions of dollars and research man power into the study, test and production of anti common cold armamentarium in vain. Common cold in best of facilities and countries has a average death rate of less than 1 per 10, 000 (example CDC tracked 45, 000 thousand patients initially who were proved to be positive forH1N1, of which 6000 were admitted as they were seriously ill or were in high risk to become seriously ill and 300 died) A basic rule in epidemiology of common illness is for every one tested there are at least 100 untested positive patients who had mild form of disease. H1N1 is no exception to this.
In conclusion seasonal Flu (common cold which affects some percentage 10 – 20%) of population especially during change of climate is as annual event as predictable as monsoon. This is a self limiting, completely reversible illness in vast majority except in very very few patients who require hospitalization, intensive care and at times cause death. Small children, pregnant, asthmatics, elderly, renal, cardiac, lung disease and immunocompramised patients need to be extra careful in such times as they are prone for complications and rarely death. Traditionally for otherwise healthy population there is no need for anti viral therapy. Vaccines are usually reserved for special high risk group and for health freaks (read health paranoids). In India till date annual seasonal influenza vaccine sale among civilians were not more than few hundreds. No physician in his senses has ever tested for influenza virus or given an antiviral drug for common cold till date in India for general population. (Military, transplantation units and VVIPs of industry and politicians excluded)
There is no evidence or scientific published data to say current H1N1 is any different than seasonal influenza except few symptoms like diarrhea in few patients and probably little faster rate of spread in an unusual season in US. There is no evidence over last 8 months to say it is more dangerous or deadly than its predecessor influenza strains (seasonal Flu).
The Key Player in H1N1 Mafia
India is under the grip of Flu Mafia and it is draining crores and crores of rupees (estimated 1000 crores) of public money into the drain and pockets of many key Mafia Players directly and 10 times more in the from of indirect loss due to wide publicity, loss of incoming travel, loss of tourism and shifting or downsizing of Indian facilities of multinationals.
The ultimate interest of medical Mafia is sensitize billions of Indian to concept of virus, anti viral treatment and hi tech testing. Just by mere number even one percent gets frightened and falls prey the numbers are bigger than whole of north America.
Politicians and Administrators in power
Senseless import of expensive, useless drugs, devices, testing systems and consumables in large quantity without any need analysis, utility analysis and cost audit/bidding. Most of these are with short expiry dates and disease specific, valid only for this strain of virus. (a simple disposable mask costing Rs 5 procured for Rs. 30/-, a special 3M N95 mask normally used in select situation costing Rs. 30 is paid Rs. 280, PCR test facility 20 – 40 Lakhs procured at 1 Crore, PCR test kit not more than Rs. 2, 000 purchased at the rate of 10, 000/- Tamiflu manufactured in very huge quantity but almost nearing expiry by few multinationals for avian flu epidemic couple years back now bought hurriedly without an national policy on use of Tamiflu or antiviral. A government system which cannot maintain a basic x- ray machine or refrigerator gets away with all this in the hype and goes scot free.
Because of undue media hype in the form of selected leaks, news of inadequacy of facilities at government hospitals, glorified news of death of one unfortunate case wherein doctors have done everything possible, understandable hysterical curse of the mother on doctors pushed the government to show it is doing everything possible (call drama with a hidden agenda of huge unimaginable quantum of commission – glance through the list of importers and distributors to MOH). It was a typical predictable kneejerk reaction by the government and its clumsy master plan for H1N1 doctored mainly by business (commission) interest and hardly any medical or citizen interest. Interestingly the day first swine Flu case expired in Pune, Bihar had reported 28 deaths due to Falciparum Malaria seen only in a WHO website bulletin board which went grossly unreported in media shows state of affairs and showcases our pathetic public priority and policy.
Airport screening is one classic example how ill conceived idea can drain, pain and fail system. Whichever Babu ordered this had grand design in mind from day 1 and knew that that will fail. Idea was to give free publicity to concept of ‘deadly H1N1’. Instead of usual AK 47 wielding central forces, doctors and nurses received the passengers at international arrival gates with masks and thermometers. This was phase 1 of marketing of ‘deadly’ suffix to H1N1. If India thought H1N1 was so deadly and was keen to protect its citizens instead of all these drama at airport should have stopped all international travel for few months. Or imposed mandatory 10 days quarantine. Ultimate joke on this front was when India had thousands of leaky noses within all across the country, to stop few leaky noses entering central government deciding to import few hundred thermal camera systems for each of the airport at an exorbitant cost.
Once Mafia players were sure of few cases in India, Phase 2 of marketing activity of ‘Deadly H1N1’ was announcement of procurement of few thousands of tablets of Tamiflu and few hundred testing kits and few 2 test facilities. Country of billions plus with two billions nostrils this was enough to ring the alarm and trigger supply demand mismatch and chaos following that. See the background, 99% percent of practicing doctors are rightly not aware of investigations and treatment of seasonal influenza because it was never taught in medical schools, always used to be treated with symptomatic treatment and treatment of resulting complications. They learnt about ‘Deadly H1N1’ from media and their observation and judgment arising out of news in media and photos of screening and quarantine of patients, followed by statements by authorities on testing, Tamiflu and test centers. Even highly qualified professors and senior consultants at institutes of repute failed to realize or learn a simple fact from available reliable resource that H1N1 Flu is broadly no different than previous seasonal Flu or common cold occurring periodically. Their hidden interest and effort in this stage was to join the hype and fuel to the fire and try to get more equipments, reagents and facilities to their facilities to face the problem better!, in normal course it would have taken few years and lot of lobbying. Their puzzling silence and hype by the administration and media of all types resulted in a situation wherein everybody specialists, doctors and general public strongly believed that common cold with fever needs specific test, swallowing Tamiflu and admission into hospital for survival otherwise certain death. Following simple basic questions were left unanswered resulting in current health anarchy in the country and collapse of logical thinking and practical actions by people concerned.
Important questions till now widely not answered – if answered will hopefully bring some sanity among masses
1. Is H1N1 more deadly than previous common cold (seasonal Flu)?
– No, absolutely not
Then why so much of hype – That is in Mafia’s business interest
Who are the part of Mafia – Multinational, transnational, Indian multinationals, equipments, drug, reagent suppliers, politicians, bureaucracy (top to bottom), doctors, medical politicians, medical researchers, medical institutions and research organizations for their own survival, bigger profits, budgets, bigger commissions, foreign travels and ego satisfaction. Private institutions are happy because in the absence of government facility or near collapse of government facility they will be the maximum gainers. We at private health system work under one simple rule told by our top management - more patients, more tests – higher the top line! All have become party for this hype or delaying sane decisions and practical policy. I am sure like in US after few weeks common man on street who is always wise will realize all this and become bold we will invent some other flu may be Squirrel Flu for next season.
2. Is it important for individuals to get tested once we know in a geography (territory) H1N1 is present and spreading – No
Initially at country level and may be regional level for academic and research interest it may be of value to screen few well sampled cases by trained specialists. Once we know the existence of flu H1N1 or other seasonal Flu absolutely there is no need for mass screening, it will not serve any purpose with respect to that particular patient or society.
3. Is it important to take anti viral (Tamiflu) routinely if one is tested for H1N1 – No
Testing and specific antiviral treatment is available to protect population is at higher risk of complications or death like children, very elderly, existing serious medical problems and immune suppressed patients or patients who have developed serious symptoms and signs and definitely not for otherwise healthy population. In fact risk of therapy is higher in this situation because it is not a safe drug, please read the product insert. Common side effects include confusion, fits, insomnia and self harm!. That is why it is a restricted drug in all the developed country.
4. If one of your close contacts tested positive for H1N1 should you get tested? - No
Unless contact of proven H1N1 or suspected H1N1 is at high risk of serious complications or death mentioned above there is no need of antiviral therapy
5. What are the proven effects of Antiviral drugs?
As per product insert of Tamiflu and Virenza (only two drugs are currently effective. Yesterday Cipla (Indian Multinational) has launched the second one in open market and within few weeks this molecule will become ineffective. If drugs are started within first 24 hours of symptoms it is observed that clinical course will be shortened by 36 hours and if started within 24 - 48 hours of initial symptoms of infection, clinical course will short by 24 hours. Weather someone sneezes for 6 days or 7 days really does it matter when cost of testing and therapy is costing poor nation of billions in billions. This will deny the common man basic health amenities in days to come. There is no evidence or proof to say use of Tamiflu will reduce frequency of complication or prevents death. It is proved that they only reduce duration of clinical illness marginally as mentioned above.
Conventional symptomatic treatment based on the symptoms and clinical state is equally good. Complete rest, Good food and hydration are important issues usually not taken seriously, till things go wrong.
6. What is the scope for vaccine?
Success of the vaccine is very limited even in the west. Vaccine needs to be taken annually based on the expected / prevalent strain and there is no long term immunity.
Even current vaccine H1N1 comes out of clinical trial latest by October likely to be launched bypassing crucial safety, efficacy and ethical standards due to pressure by public instigated by Mafia surrogately, life of vaccine will not be more than one season, next year some other variant Flu will emerge as it has done periodically. It will be prohibitively costly as Vaccine Mafia is certain with so much of investment in ‘creation of deadly H1N1 Mania’ they have succeeded in pushing the government to wall in buying vaccine in huge quantity like it has done in the case of purchase of Tamiflu.
By the time vaccine is in the market more than 30% population would have developed infection and following that there will be good herd immunity.
7. What is likely course of current epidemic/pandemic
It is estimated that 10 – 30 % of population gets infected, 10% of them with varying degree of symptoms and over next two months gradually new cases will gradually reduce. By then based on the available knowledge from US and Mexico (where this started first) likely 100 – 1000 Indian citizens will die, this is inevitable in the hand of nature, where we have violated nature in the form of bad urbanization, crowded work and residences, congested mass transport, poor nutrition, bad habits like smoking and alcohol. Innocent children will be significant number in this no fault of theirs. Soon same mafia will decide to stop testing for virus and declare there are no new cases, or a substandard card test (spot test) will come into market which will be antibody based and will show negative for most cases. Government claims credit for control, media claims credit for its effective proactive coverage and others would have made huge profit (a killing) by then.
It is a shame that a for country like India aspiring to reach moon soon cannot have an effective bold public health policy making body and successful leadership. This left the day open for exploitation at all levels in the pretext of after all a Common cold.
End note: I miss my grandmother’s recipe of kashaya which made me well during all those flu in mild childhood.
1. How this H1N1 is different than previous common cold (seasonal flu)?
2. Why so much of hype?
3. Where is the concrete or at least suggestive evidence to say H1N1 is more deadly compared to usual common cold (seasonal Flue)?
4. In the absence of sensible scientific evidence why drain public money for testing for H1N1?
5. When for all patients even if proven positive for H1N1 anti virals are not required why test in the first place?
6. In the absence of reliable evidence to show life saving / complication prevention capability of the anti viral drug why use it in all the patients who are tested positive?
7. At what cost and from what source GOI and GOK are importing / procuring virus test kits and anti viral drugs?
8. What is the current drug resistance rate for Tamiflu? It mentioned that it ranges anywhere between 30 – 90% in US and Mexico, is it true for India also?
9. Who and how decided on these policy issue?
10. Why did not GOI follow current US guidelines straight away, rather preferred to repeat the mistake which US did in the beginning of avian flu and swine flu?
11. Is there a US lobby / Import lobby / in senselessly importing the swine flu test kits and drugs after creating a hysteria in the media?
12. Who has to audit the role of media
13. Why senior doctors and experts are kept out of key decisions?
14. Is it true that ICMR and DBT are full of non practicing US friendly policy makers who can be bought for a price at times as cheap as one US trip?
15.What purpose it serves to do screening in airport even at this part of time when 10% Indian population is affected? In fact we should be doing at departure gate if want to help the rest of the world!
This Post is based on a mail from an unconfirmed source, however it makes sense! mail your response to: firstname.lastname@example.org